Hon. Steven Guilbeault, P.C., M.P., Minister of Environment and Climate Change: I thank the honourable senator for his question. I would like to refer you to the most recent report of the International Energy Agency, released at the end of 2021. It presents scenarios — you are very familiar with such things, Senator Gignac — that tell us that essentially, according to forecasts, global oil production will peak in 2028 and then drop 4% a year until 2050.

We currently live in a world where we produce about 90 million barrels of oil per day. In 2050, we will be producing only 25 million per day, so there will be a substantial decrease in both production and consumption. Why? We are electrifying our transportation and electricity generation sectors. We are working with businesses in the oil and gas, cement, aluminum and steel sectors to help them decarbonize and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. This is happening in Canada and also in other parts of the world, like Europe, the U.S., South Korea, China and India. This idea that we will need more oil in the future goes against the scenario envisioned by global experts.

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Hon. Steven Guilbeault, P.C., M.P., Minister of Environment and Climate Change: Thank you, senator. I wouldn’t say we’re against the idea of autonomy for the energy sector. In fact, we’re working on strengthening our country’s energy autonomy. As I said to one of your colleagues earlier, I’m not the one saying that oil production will peak in 2028. That’s from the International Energy Agency, which many consider to be one of the most credible organizations in this area. I could mention the report by our energy regulator, which says Canada’s oil production will peak in 2032, not 2028.

I agree with you that we are going to keep using oil for quite some time. However, what seems very clear according to the experts is that oil production will decrease year after year. We are currently decarbonizing the transportation and electricity generation sectors. We’ll have a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. We are working with companies in the aluminum sector to produce aluminum with virtually no GHG emissions. We are working with steel companies too. As a result, our need for fossil fuels will shrink over time.

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